SMU projected to face Florida in the Gator Bowl in The Athletic's post-Week 7 forecast

SMU's postseason picture got a little clearer this week. The Athletic's latest bowl projections, released after Week 7, send the Mustangs to Jacksonville for the Gator Bowl on Dec. 30 against Florida. Gators Wire reported the forecast from the Gators' side, since the game would keep Florida in its home state.

The Gator Bowl's tie-in pairs the ACC with the SEC. Landing there would put SMU in one of the better non-playoff spots the league has. It also says something about where forecasters have the Mustangs right now. They are good enough for a premium ACC bowl, but this projection does not have them in the playoff field.

Florida's side of the matchup is far from settled. According to Sports Illustrated, the Gators upset No. 7 Texas on the road in Week 7, which ended a two-game losing streak for Jon Sumrall's team. SI's own projection also has Florida in the Gator Bowl, but against Wake Forest, not SMU. With that much disagreement in mid-October, treat the matchup as one possible outcome. The Gator Bowl slot itself is the steadier part of the forecast.

SMU has earned the attention. The Mustangs are 5-1 and opened with a 27-24 win at Florida State. Their only loss was 41-31 at No. 23 Louisville. They have won three straight since then, beating Missouri State 34-24, Boston College 25-16 and Virginia 23-13. The last two wins came on defense. SMU allowed 29 points across those two ACC games and did not need to win a shootout either time.

What it means for California

Bowl projections in October can shift after any single result, and SMU's next one comes Saturday, Oct. 24, when California visits (CW / ESPN Unlmtd). Holding serve at home keeps the Mustangs in line for a strong ACC bowl at worst. A loss would hand forecasters a reason to slide them down the list.

The market expects a comfortable SMU win. Across the 11 venues on this site's board for the game, SMU is favored by 19.5 points. Novig prices SMU at -108 on that number and Cal at +102. The best price anywhere on the Cal side is at BetRivers, which offers +20.5 at -109. On the moneyline, Novig has SMU at -953 and Cal at +900.

The total is 54.5. That is higher than either of SMU's last two games, which produced 41 and 36 combined points. Novig lists the over at -108 and the under at -100. Hard Rock Bet has the best over price, -105 at 54.5. FanDuel has the under at 55.5 for -115. Sportsbook hold ranges from 3.1% to 5.2% on the moneyline and from 3.6% to 6.8% on the spread and total, so prices vary a fair amount from venue to venue.

If SMU covers a number that size, it would be the Mustangs' widest margin against a power-conference opponent so far this season. A win of any kind would keep the Jacksonville projection intact for another week.