No. 23 SMU hosts Cal as a big favorite, looking for a fourth straight win

No. 23 SMU will try to keep its ACC season on course Saturday, when Cal visits Gerald J. Ford Stadium in Dallas for a noon Eastern kickoff on The CW. The Mustangs are 5-1 and have won three in a row since the loss at Louisville. Cal is 3-4 and was beaten 41-7 at home by No. 21 Wake Forest last week.

The AP News preview listed an opening line of SMU by 17.5. Neither team has been reliable against the number: SMU is 2-3-1 against the spread and Cal is 2-5. ESPN's matchup predictor gives the Mustangs an 84.5% chance to win, and the ESPN preview page has Cal at 2-2 in conference play.

The statistics point the same way. SMU's defense gives up 21.3 points per game, and AP ranks it 11th in FBS against the pass at 164.8 yards per game. Cal throws for 288.1 yards a game, 15th nationally, but runs for only 90.3, which ranks 137th. That leaves the Golden Bears leaning on the one part of their offense SMU has handled best. On the other side, Cal's defense allows 27.7 points and 181.4 rushing yards per game. AP also ranks it 107th on third down, with opponents converting 42.4% of the time, while SMU's offense ranks 23rd at 48.1%. One possible equalizer is flags. Both teams are among the most penalized in the country: SMU averages 69.0 penalty yards a game and Cal averages 81.4.

What it means for Saturday

SMU has scored 32.7 points per game and held its last three opponents to 24 or fewer. The run started with 34-24 over Missouri State and continued with 25-16 over Boston College and 23-13 over Virginia. Its conference résumé now reads 3-1, with the opening 27-24 win at Florida State still the best result on it. Cal has not won consecutive games since beating Syracuse and Wagner in September. All three of its wins came against Syracuse, Wagner and Virginia Tech, and its four losses came by an average of nearly 19 points. The Bears' last road game was a 39-31 loss at UNLV.

The board for Cal at SMU has moved toward the Mustangs since the open, and 11 venues are posting prices. SMU is favored by 19.5 at Novig, priced at -108. The best number available on the favorite is BetRivers at -17.5 (-109), so the venues are two points apart on the spread. On the moneyline, SMU is favored at -809 on Novig. Cal is +733 there, and theScore Bet has the best price on the underdog at +750. The total sits at 53.5 at Novig, with the over at -111 and the under at -108. BetMGM has the over at 53.5 for -110, and Hard Rock Bet has the under at 54.5 for -110. Sportsbook hold runs from 3.4% to 5.7% on the moneyline and from 3.9% to 7.0% on the spread.

The same week, the conference's other lopsided matchup sends Pittsburgh to No. 1 Miami. The Hurricanes are favored by 20.5 at Novig on the Pitt at Miami board.