Florida State at 3-4 needs three wins in five games to reach a bowl, starting with Clemson

Florida State left Miami with a 43-35 double-overtime loss and a 3-4 record. To reach a bowl, the Seminoles now need three wins from their last five games. The schedule may allow it. A rotation that has to work without its lead running back will make it harder.

Tony Thomas of Roundtable Sports went through the rest of the schedule and picked Florida State to win four of its last five, beating Clemson, Boston College, Pittsburgh and NC State before losing to No. 20 Florida, for a 7-5 finish. Under that projection, bowl eligibility would come in the NC State game on Nov. 21. Thomas called the Miami game the team's best performance of the season. It came at a price: running back Ousmane Kromah fractured his ankle in the game, according to the outlet. Quarterback Ashton Daniels and running back Tre Wisner remain as ball carriers, and Thomas expects Mike Norvell's staff to change the offensive plan. He also pointed to poor play-calling near the goal line over the last two weeks. Four downs inside the 5-yard line went nowhere, which he called the team's "nemesis."

The bye week gives Florida State time to rework the backfield. The record so far is split. All three wins came at home, against New Mexico State, Central Arkansas and Virginia, by a combined 106-31. All four losses came against SMU, Alabama, Louisville and Miami, and three of those teams were ranked. The Seminoles have averaged about 31.6 points a game. They have also allowed 87 points over the last two weeks, and that is the bigger worry heading into November.

What it means for Clemson

Clemson visits Tallahassee on Saturday, Oct. 31. That game probably matters more than any other for the Seminoles. Clemson is 4-2, but Roundtable reports that Dabo Swinney has used four quarterbacks behind an offense near the bottom of the ACC. As a team, the Tigers have just two touchdown passes. Tait Reynolds has played the most, with 943 yards, one touchdown and three interceptions. History favors Clemson. Florida State is 1-4 against the Tigers under Norvell and has not beaten them at home since 2014. Clemson already has a lopsided defeat this season, a 41-13 home loss to Miami.

While Florida State is off, Miami (6-0) hosts Pittsburgh, a team the Seminoles visit on Friday, Nov. 13. The board for Pittsburgh at Miami has the Hurricanes favored by 20.5 points at Novig, at -113. The best price on Pittsburgh's side is +21.5 at -120 at theScore Bet. On the moneyline, Miami is -1567 at Novig and -1185 at Polymarket, the best price anywhere. Pittsburgh is +1150 at Novig and +1300 at theScore Bet. The total is 51.5 at Novig. Across the 11 venues, sportsbook hold on the moneyline ranges from 3.2% to 5.2%. Roundtable notes that Pittsburgh is 5-2 but has lost two straight, and starting quarterback Mason Heintschel went down with a right leg injury against Virginia Tech. How Pittsburgh handles Miami will show what Florida State can expect three weeks later.

For now, the Seminoles' path is simple. If they beat Clemson, two wins in the last four games will get them to a bowl. If they lose, they need to win three of the four that remain, and one of those is Florida.