Pitt goes back to Holden Geriner at quarterback for trip to No. 1 Miami

Pitt will reportedly start its third different quarterback in three weeks on Saturday. Fifth-year transfer Holden Geriner is expected to get the start at No. 1 Miami, replacing true freshman Corey Dailey. Pittsburgh Panthers On SI reported the move after CBS Sports' Matt Zenitz first had it, according to On3. On3 also reported that Dailey is still expected to play.

The move reverses last week's switch. Pat Narduzzi didn't tip his hand at his Monday news conference. Asked who would start in Miami, he answered "I don't know," per 93.7 The Fan. By midweek, the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette had Geriner in the running, according to RotoWire, and the Zenitz report followed.

The instability goes back to the 35-33 win at Virginia Tech, when sophomore starter Mason Heintschel tore his ACL. Geriner came on in the third quarter and went 8-of-12 for 78 yards and a touchdown to close out that win. He made his first college start the next week against North Carolina and struggled, going 27-of-44 for 219 yards with two interceptions in a 21-17 home loss. That cost him the job. Dailey threw a 75-yard touchdown on his first pass at Boston College, then cooled off and finished 11-of-25 for 193 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions in a 27-21 loss.

Geriner spent three seasons at Auburn and one at Texas State before transferring to Pitt for his final year. Saturday will be his second career start. Pitt seems to be betting on experience over upside against a defense that has controlled most of its schedule.

What it means for Saturday

The numbers show the size of the task. Pitt started 5-0 with Heintschel and averaged 38.4 points over that stretch. In two games since, it has scored 17 and 21 points and lost both, falling to 5-2. Miami is 6-0 and averaging 48.5 points while allowing 14 per game. It has won road games at Clemson (41-13), Wake Forest and Stanford. The one shaky spot was last week's 43-35 win over Florida State, the only time this season an opponent has scored more than 20 points on the Hurricanes.

The market doesn't expect much from Pitt. Across the 11 venues on our game board, Miami is favored by 19.5 points. Novig has the Hurricanes at -111 on that number, and theScore Bet has the best Miami price at -110. FanDuel is the only venue showing Pitt at +20.5, priced at -114. Novig has Pitt +19.5 at +102. On the moneyline, Miami is -1329 on Novig and -1185 at Polymarket, the shortest price anywhere. Pitt is +1150 on Novig. The total is 48.5 on Novig, and sportsbooks range from 48 to 49.5.

Sportsbook hold runs from 2.8% to 5.2% on the moneyline and up to 7% on the total. That spread between venues is wider than usual for a game the market sees this one-sidedly. If Geriner can avoid the turnovers that hurt him against North Carolina, Pitt has a chance to keep the score inside that number. Kickoff is Saturday on ESPN and Disney+.