Miami football odds: Hurricanes favored by 13.5 over Duke after first loss at Notre Dame

Miami is favored by 13.5 points over Duke for Saturday, November 14, at home on ABC. On Novig, one of 12 venues on our board, the Hurricanes are -506 on the moneyline and Duke is +471. The total is 55.5. Miami comes in 8-1 after its first loss of the season, 31-24 at No. 11 Notre Dame.

Our Miami Hurricanes team page is the full guide to the season, with the schedule, results and team prices. This story covers what changed this week and what the numbers say about Saturday.

Where the Duke number sits

Novig has Miami -13.5 at -104 and Duke +13.5 at -100, so the market treats two touchdowns as close to an even split. The moneyline is more lopsided. A Miami price of -506 implies about an 83.5 percent chance of a Hurricanes win before fees. Duke's +471 implies about 17.5 percent. Sportsbook hold on the moneyline runs from 3.7 to 6.5 percent across the board, and on the spread from 3.4 to 7.0 percent.

The total is the one market where the venues disagree. Novig lists 55.5, with the over at +102 and the under at -111. FanDuel has the over at 54.5 for -110, the best over price on our board at that number. Hold on the total ranges from 3.8 to 7.0 percent. Live prices for all 12 venues are on the Duke at Miami odds page.

The record so far

Miami is 8-1. It won its first eight games, and every one of them by at least seven points except a 38-35 win at North Carolina. The run included a 41-13 win at Clemson, a 43-35 home win over Florida State and a 52-23 win over Pittsburgh. Non-conference wins came at Stanford (45-6) and at home against Florida A&M (77-7) and Central Michigan (52-3).

The Hurricanes have scored 405 points in nine games, an average of 45 a game, and allowed 19.2. The defense has slipped lately, though. Miami has given up 35, 23, 35 and 31 points in its last four games, about 31 a game, compared with 9.8 a game over the first five. That recent stretch helps explain why the total for a two-touchdown favorite sits in the mid-50s.

What the Notre Dame loss means

The 31-24 loss in South Bend was Miami's first of the season and its first one-score game since the trip to Chapel Hill. It was a non-conference loss, so it doesn't count in the ACC standings, but it does take away the Hurricanes' unbeaten record heading into the last part of the regular season. With nine games played, Miami has three regular-season games left, starting with Duke. That matters to anyone tracking a preseason win total: the Hurricanes need wins down the stretch to reach double digits.

Legality

Florida law sets 21 as the minimum age for legal sports wagering. Statewide mobile sports wagering is limited to the Seminole Tribe's Hard Rock platform, and sportsbooks licensed only in other states cannot legally take action from people located in Florida. Novig and other venues decide which states they operate in, so check whether a venue is legal where you are physically located. Using a VPN or location-spoofing tool to get around a state's rules is not legal.

Kickoff is Saturday on ABC. The Miami team page updates with the result.