Wake Forest rises to No. 13 and sits first out of the CFP field ahead of its trip to SMU

The ACC's playoff picture got narrower Tuesday night, and Saturday's game in Dallas is now the one that decides most of it. In the College Football Playoff committee's second rankings, Miami fell from No. 1 to No. 7 after its 31-24 loss at Notre Dame. Wake Forest climbed from No. 16 to No. 13, according to NCAA.com. The Hurricanes and Demon Deacons are the only ACC teams in the committee's top 25.

ESPN's Bubble Watch, written by Heather Dinich before the release, still had Miami in the projected bracket even after the loss. ESPN Analytics gives the Canes a 99.9% chance to reach the ACC championship game, a 74.1% chance to win it and a 97.6% chance to make the playoff, the best figure in the country. ESPN also noted that Miami played in South Bend without injured receiver Malachi Toney. NCAA.com said Miami's head-to-head win over Wake Forest kept the Canes from sliding further.

Wake Forest is ESPN's first team out. The Deacons have won six straight since losing 33-20 to Miami, and their last three wins came by a combined 169-14. Their schedule is the problem: ESPN ranks it 68th, while the Deacons rank sixth in overall efficiency, and their most recent win came against FCS Merrimack. ESPN's projection still has them meeting Miami in the ACC title game, which would give them a direct path into the field. A second loss would almost certainly end their case. Texas Tech holds the No. 12 spot directly ahead of them.

SMU is the ACC's only other team still alive in ESPN's view. The Mustangs are unranked after losses at Louisville and Syracuse, so their only way in is winning the league. ESPN gives them a 17.3% chance to reach the title game, and a win Saturday would raise it. Fourteen ACC teams, including Duke at 7-2, are listed as out.

What it means for Saturday

Wake Forest (8-1) at SMU (7-2) is close to an elimination game. The teams have two common opponents, and Wake Forest beat both by more: Cal 41-7 to SMU's 59-20, and Virginia 51-7 to SMU's 23-13. SMU is coming off a 51-28 win over Virginia Tech, and seven of its nine opponents have scored 28 or fewer. ESPN's FPI gives Wake Forest a 59.4% chance to win.

The board has it closer than that. On Novig, one of 12 venues listed, the moneyline is nearly even: SMU is at -102 and Wake Forest at -100. Novig's spread has SMU favored by 1.5 points, but Hard Rock Bet has Wake Forest as the 1.5-point favorite, so the venues disagree on who should be favored. Sportsbook hold runs from 3.8% to 6.6% on the spread. The total is 60.5 on Novig, and BetRivers has the highest number at 62.5.

Miami's path is more straightforward. Duke visits Saturday on a three-game winning streak that includes a 41-3 win at NC State and a 47-2 win over Boston College. The Blue Devils still have losses to North Carolina and Georgia Tech. Miami is favored by 13.5 points on Novig and is -506 on the moneyline there, while BetMGM's best price on the Miami side comes with a 13-point line. The Duke-Miami board has the total at 54.5 on Novig.

If both favorites win, a Miami-Wake Forest rematch for the ACC title becomes very likely. If SMU wins, the league could be down to one realistic playoff team.