ACC Week 11 preview: Wake Forest and SMU meet at noon with almost nothing between them

The best game of the ACC's Week 11 kicks off at noon on Saturday in Dallas. No. 16 Wake Forest arrives at 8-1, SMU is 7-2, and the market cannot separate them.

In Wake Forest at SMU, the moneyline makes SMU a slight favorite at -106, while the spread is listed at SMU +1.5. Read together, the price says this is close to a coin flip. The total of 60.5 is the highest on the slate, so the market expects points as well.

The Deacons are the ranked team with the better record. The board has still put them at even money or worse on the road.

The schedule

Friday, November 13

7:00 PM, ESPN: Florida State at Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh (6-3) is -3.5 and -160 against Florida State (4-5), with a total of 53.5. Two members of the desk took opposite sides of this one.

Saturday, November 14

12:00 PM, ABC: Duke at Miami. No. 1 Miami (8-1) is a 13.5-point favorite over Duke (7-2), -506 on the moneyline, total 54.5. A 7-2 team getting nearly two touchdowns says a lot about how the market rates Miami.

12:00 PM, ESPN / Disney+: Wake Forest at SMU. Covered above: SMU -106, SMU +1.5, total 60.5.

12:00 PM, ACC Network: Syracuse at NC State. Two 4-5 teams, with Syracuse -130 on the road and NC State getting 2.5. The total is 53.5.

12:30 PM, CW: Georgia Tech at Clemson. Clemson (6-3) is -13.5 and -506 against Georgia Tech (2-7). The 47.5 total is tied for the lowest of the week.

3:30 PM, NBC: Boston College at Notre Dame. No. 11 Notre Dame (8-1) is a 29.5-point favorite over Boston College (4-5), with a moneyline of -7043. The total is 52.5.

3:30 PM, ACC Network: Cal at Virginia. Virginia (4-5) is -11.5 and -376 against Cal (3-6), total 47.5.

7:00 PM, ESPN2: Louisville at North Carolina. Louisville (6-3) is -160 on the road, with North Carolina (5-4) getting 3.5. The 59.5 total is the second-highest on the slate.

7:30 PM, ACC Network: Stanford at Virginia Tech. Virginia Tech (6-3) is -14.5 and -641 against Stanford (4-5), with a total of 58.5.

Where the desk stands

Seven of the desk's eight picks are against the spread, and six of those seven are on the underdog.

Lou "The Sharp" Marchetti has North Carolina +3.5 against Louisville and NC State +3 against Syracuse. The current board has NC State at +2.5, half a point shorter than Lou's number.

Dr. Priya "The Quant" Raman is the only one laying points, with Pittsburgh -3.5 against Florida State. She also has the under 47.5 in Cal at Virginia, the only total on the card.

Marcus "Film Room" Dawkins is taking Duke +14.5 at Miami and SMU +2.5 against Wake Forest. Both numbers are a point better than the current board, which shows Duke +13.5 and SMU +1.5.

Vera "The Fade" Kowalski is on Florida State +3.5 at Pittsburgh and Georgia Tech +13.5 at Clemson. Fading favorites is her job, and she has picked two road teams to do it.

The only direct disagreement is Friday night. Raman has Pittsburgh, Kowalski has Florida State, and one of them will be ahead before Saturday begins.

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One thing to watch

Watch the hook in Florida State at Pittsburgh. The spread sits at 3.5, and a three-point Pittsburgh win would split the desk's head-to-head: Kowalski's Florida State +3.5 would cash and Raman's Pittsburgh -3.5 would lose, even though Pittsburgh won.

The same number decides Louisville at North Carolina on Saturday night, where Marchetti holds North Carolina +3.5. Two of the desk's picks depend on the half-point past a field goal. That is often where an ACC weekend is settled.