SMU odds: Mustangs vs. No. 16 Wake Forest is close to a pick'em in Week 12

The market has SMU's next game almost even. The Mustangs (7-2) host No. 16 Wake Forest on Saturday, November 14, on ESPN and Disney+. On Novig, one of 12 venues on our board for the game, both teams are -102 on the moneyline. The spread leans slightly toward the visitors. Our SMU team page is the full guide to the Mustangs' season. This story covers the matchup and what it means for SMU's ACC and playoff hopes.

The numbers for Saturday

On Novig, Wake Forest is favored by 1.5 points at +106, and SMU +1.5 is -108. Not every venue agrees. FanDuel lists Wake Forest at +1.5 (-120), which makes SMU the slight favorite there. The split shows how little separates these teams in the market.

Novig sets the total at 60.5, with the over at -108 and the under at -102. Hard Rock Bet is the highest of the 12 venues on our board, with the under at 61.5 (-105). Sportsbook hold runs from 3.4% to 6.7% on the moneyline and from 3.6% to 7.0% on the total. Prices on our board refresh about every ten minutes, so these numbers may change before kickoff.

Where SMU stands

SMU is coming off its biggest scoring game against a conference opponent this season, a 51-28 win over Virginia Tech. That came a week after a 30-27 loss at Syracuse. The Mustangs are 5-2 against ACC teams. They won at Florida State and beat Boston College, Virginia, Cal and Virginia Tech. Their other conference loss was 41-31 at No. 23 Louisville. They are 2-0 outside the league, with wins over UC Davis and Missouri State, according to ESPN season results.

The offense has scored 50 or more points three times: 56 against UC Davis, 59 against Cal and 51 against Virginia Tech. In close games it has been less explosive. SMU beat Florida State 27-24 and Boston College 25-16. That helps explain why the total sits around 60 rather than higher.

What Wake Forest means for the ACC race and the playoff

With nine games played, SMU has three regular-season games left, and this is the one that shapes everything else. A third conference loss would leave SMU depending on other results to reach the ACC Championship Game. A win over a ranked opponent would give the Mustangs the best win on their schedule this season. It would also give them a stronger case for the playoff and conference championship that searchers are asking about.

Our board does not currently list season-long futures for SMU, such as ACC title, playoff or national championship prices. Any preseason win total is already close to being decided, since SMU has seven wins with three games left. The Wake Forest game is the clearest current market on the Mustangs.

On legality

Price availability depends on where you live. As of this week, sports betting is not legal in Texas, where SMU plays. Where state law allows sportsbooks or prediction markets, they are generally open only to adults 21 and over, and some states set different rules. Check your state's law before using any venue, and do not use workarounds to get around it.