ACC picks, Week 1

North Carolina at TCU· Sat, Aug 29 · 12:00 PM ET

Spread

North Carolina +7.5

-110

Seven is the most important number in this sport, and they're handing me the hook on top of it with North Carolina at +7.5. The moneyline at +245 puts the Heels near 29 percent to win outright, and early-season neutral-site games between two Power teams don't usually separate by eight or more as often as this number implies. I'll take the half point over the whole story every time.

Clemson at LSU· Sat, Sep 5 · 9:40 PM ET

Spread

Clemson +10

-110

LSU at home at night is a tough room, and the market knows it, but laying double digits against Clemson in Week 1 is paying a premium for atmosphere. The +320 moneyline says Clemson wins this outright roughly a quarter of the time, and a team with that kind of upset equity tends to stay inside ten more often than not. Ten is a real number, so I'm happy to sit on the dog side of it.

SMU at Florida State· Mon, Sep 7 · 7:30 PM ET

Spread

Florida State +3

-110

A road favorite of exactly three in a Monday night spot means the market is calling SMU a slightly better team and giving Florida State the usual home-field credit. At +3 I'm getting the key number back with the home side, and the +130 moneyline puts the Noles around 43 percent before you strip out the vig. That's close enough to a coin flip that I'd rather own the points than lay them.

UCLA at Cal· Sat, Sep 5 · 10:30 PM ET

Spread

Cal +2.5

-110

The moneyline at +120 implies about 45 percent for Cal, and the spread at -110 asks me to be right 52.4 percent of the time with a 2.5-point cushion at home. I put Cal covering closer to 54 or 55 percent, since a short road favorite in an opening week rests mostly on preseason narrative, and I trust narrative least before any games have been played. The gap is small but positive, so I take the points.

New Hampshire at Syracuse· Sat, Sep 5 · 12:00 PM ET

Spread

New Hampshire +35.5

-110

A 35.5-point spread against an FCS opponent needs the favorite to keep scoring after the outcome is settled, and early-season rotations and clock management work against that. The price implies a 52.4 percent break-even. My rough estimate for the underdog covering is near 55 percent, a modest edge built on structure rather than any belief about either roster.

Boston College at Cincinnati· Sat, Sep 5 · 3:30 PM ET

Total

Under 51.5

-110

The total of 51.5 at -110 is priced as a coin flip after the vig, with a 52.4 percent break-even. Week 1 totals tend to lean toward offensive optimism, and a 7-point spread suggests a game the market does not expect to turn into a shootout. I estimate the under near 54 percent, a thin gap that holds up better than any story I could tell about these two teams from a sample of zero games.

NC State at Virginia· Sat, Aug 29 · 3:30 PM ET

Spread

NC State +4

-110

Conference openers in Week 1 tend to be sloppy, and a division-style rivalry like NC State at Virginia usually comes down to which line holds up in the fourth quarter, not which team is better on paper. Four points is a lot to lay for a home side in a game I expect to be decided late. I will take the points and trust the Wolfpack front to keep it within one score.

Louisville at Ole Miss· Sun, Sep 6 · 7:30 PM ET

Spread

Louisville +6.5

-110

Ole Miss will spread you out and test your corners, but Louisville has the physicality up front to shorten this game and keep that offense on the sideline. When a team can run the ball and win on early downs, a 6.5-point number against a tempo offense starts to look generous. I like the Cardinals to cover, and I would not be stunned if they won outright.

Miami at Stanford· Fri, Sep 4 · 9:00 PM ET

Total

Under 46.5

-110

Miami's defensive front should control the line of scrimmage against a Stanford offense coming off its opener, and a team that comfortable in the trenches tends to run the clock once it builds a lead. Late-night West Coast kickoffs for a travelling team can look flat early, which also keeps the scoring down. At 46.5 I lean under, expecting Miami's defense to do most of the heavy lifting.

Miami at Stanford· Fri, Sep 4 · 9:00 PM ET

Spread

Stanford +24.5

-110

Miami is the big name in a Friday night window, so the crowd lays twenty-four and a half without blinking. That is a lot of points to ask anybody to cover on the road in an opener, and laying that much with a marquee brand is exactly where the public overpays. I will hold my nose and take the ugly home dog with the cushion.

Tulane at Duke· Sat, Sep 5 · 3:30 PM ET

Spread

Tulane +9.5

-110

Duke at minus nine and a half is a number that assumes the home team's name does all the work. Tulane is a program that does not scare easily, and nearly ten points in a game totaled at fifty-one and a half is generous for a team the market treats as a mere warm-up. Give me the points and let the favorite prove it can pull away.

Hawai'i at Stanford· Sat, Aug 29 · 7:00 PM ET

Spread

Hawai'i +4.5

-110

Stanford is laying four and a half, a hair over a field goal, against a Hawai'i team most of the country will not stay up to watch. The public sees the power conference logo and assumes it is a walkover, but a short spread like this means the market does not quite believe it either. I will take the island dog and the extra half point past four.