Virginia heads to SMU as an underdog after a Syracuse comeback, with its offense under review

Virginia goes to Dallas on Saturday with a little momentum and an open question about its offense. In its latest 4-3-4 breakdown, CavsCorner on On3 has columnist Deuce Prince arguing that SMU may suit the Cavaliers better than Florida State did, and asking whether Tony Elliott's staff is about to change something on offense.

The Florida State game is still the low point. The Seminoles beat Virginia 38-7, and the Cavaliers never threatened. A week later they rallied from 10 points down to beat Syracuse 28-25 at Scott Stadium, according to CavsCorner's postgame breakdown. Running back Jekail Middlebrook scored a fourth-quarter touchdown in that comeback. The win stopped the slide after Tallahassee. It did not settle questions about an offense that managed one touchdown against Florida State.

The idea that SMU is a friendlier matchup is a claim about styles, not about how good either team is. The Mustangs have the better résumé. Kickoff is noon Eastern on The CW, and CavsCorner's players-to-watch preview starts with SMU quarterback Kevin Jennings. Whatever Virginia changes on offense, it will debut against a team that has already won in Tallahassee.

What it means for Saturday in Dallas

SMU is 4-1 and has won two straight since a 41-31 loss at Louisville. Last week it beat Boston College 25-16, after a 34-24 win over Missouri State. Its season opened with a 27-24 win at Florida State, the same team that beat Virginia by 31. That comparison works against the Cavaliers on paper, though Florida State has changed since then. The Seminoles are 3-3 after a 44-20 loss at Louisville, and it is fair to ask whether the Virginia result showed Florida State's ceiling or Virginia's floor.

The market agrees with the résumés. On this site's board, SMU is favored at -317 on Novig's moneyline, with Virginia at +300. Novig lists the spread at SMU -9.5 for -104 and Virginia +9.5 for -102. The best SMU number anywhere is Pinnacle's -9 at -110, so the 11 venues are only half a point apart. Sportsbook hold on the spread runs from 3.4% to 7.0%.

The total sits at 51.5 on Novig, at -104 for the over and -102 for the under. FanDuel is a point higher at 52.5, with the under priced at -122, which is the widest gap between venues on this game. A total around 52 assumes both offenses score, so how Virginia's offense looks after any change probably matters more than anything else on Saturday.

If Virginia can turn the Syracuse rally into a full game of sustained drives, it has a chance to stay within that spread. If the offense looks like it did in Tallahassee, SMU's 4-1 record and a home field where it has handled weaker opponents point toward a comfortable afternoon for the Mustangs.