Florida State at Miami: Storms Threaten Lightning Delays, but 7 p.m. Kickoff Holds

Saturday's Florida State-Miami game at Hard Rock Stadium is still set for 7 p.m. ET on ESPN. The forecast is the problem. Every major source expects rain over the game window, and thunderstorms make a lightning stoppage a real possibility. Heavy gathered the forecasts, and none of them put the rain chance below 70%. The National Weather Service office in Miami calls for showers and possible thunderstorms from Saturday afternoon into the evening, with an 80% to 90% chance of rain in Miami Gardens.

Nothing points to the game being moved. Heavy found no report of a schedule change and estimates the chance of a new start time at about 5% to 10%, since college football rarely moves a kickoff for ordinary rain. Lightning is the bigger risk. Heavy puts the chance of at least one stoppage between 30% and 60%. Under NCAA and ACC rules, play stops for 30 minutes when lightning strikes within roughly eight to 10 miles of the stadium, and each new strike starts the 30 minutes over. A couple of nearby storm cells could keep both teams in the locker room for a long time.

The rain itself shouldn't matter much. weather.football, which uses the National Blend of Models, rates the rain's likely effect on play as minor. Its forecast shows about a 91% chance of rain and a 71% chance of a soaking. Temperatures should be near 80 degrees, with light northeast wind that won't do much to kicks or punts. A wet ball could still lead to dropped passes and bad snaps, and rain usually pushes teams toward running the ball.

What it means for Saturday

The weather is about the only thing likely to slow Miami. The Hurricanes (team page) are 5-0 and have won every game by at least 13 points, most recently 41-13 at Clemson. Heavy reports they lead the country in both scoring offense (49.6 points per game) and scoring defense (9.8 points allowed). Darian Mensah has thrown 15 touchdown passes and no interceptions.

Florida State (team page) is 3-3 and just lost 44-20 at Louisville. That was its second loss in three games, after a 50-36 defeat at Alabama. Heavy notes the Seminoles have lost 11 straight road games. If the game turns into a running game, their best weapon is Ousmane Kromah. He has 565 rushing yards and at least 80 in every game. That runs straight into a Miami defense allowing 42.6 rushing yards per game.

The board has Miami as a heavy favorite at all 12 venues. Novig lists the Hurricanes at -1329 and Florida State at +1150. The best Seminoles moneyline anywhere is +1200 at Hard Rock Bet. On the spread, Miami is favored by 21.5 at Novig (+104), with Florida State +21.5 at -111. The best number on the Seminoles side is +22.5 at theScore Bet, priced at -115. Novig's total is 56.5, and BetRivers has 56. The prices are close together across venues. Sportsbook hold runs 3.4% to 5.4% on the moneyline and up to about 7% on the spread and total.

Miami leads the all-time series 37-33 and has won the last two meetings, according to Heavy. Thunderstorms add some doubt about how long Saturday night will run, but they don't do much to change the gap between the teams.