Miami's No. 1 ranking meets a must-win Notre Dame team in South Bend

The first College Football Playoff rankings put Miami at No. 1, Fox Sports reported. They also turned Saturday night's trip to South Bend into the most consequential game left on either team's regular-season schedule. Notre Dame is 7-1 and sits No. 11. Its only loss came against BYU. As Roundtable Sports laid out, that leaves the independent Irish almost no room. They reach the 12-team field only by finishing inside the committee's top 12, and nothing left on their schedule (Boston College, SMU and Syracuse) would make up for a loss to the Hurricanes.

The committee's reasoning points the same way. Selection chair Hunter Yurachek told ESPN that the Irish are a very good team but "don't have that signature win right now," according to a Yahoo Sports report. That report also noted that Notre Dame leads the country with a 27-point average scoring margin against FBS opponents and ranks first in ESPN's Football Power Index. The Irish start the week fourth in the AP poll, seven spots higher than the committee has them.

Miami has a cushion that Notre Dame lacks. A loss would not end its season, but it would push the Hurricanes toward needing the ACC title and its automatic bid. Roundtable Sports pointed out that Wake Forest, at No. 16, was the only other ACC team the committee ranked, which suggests the league may get only one team in. Miami is 6-0 in conference play and closes with three ACC games at home, Yahoo Sports noted. There is history here too. Miami took the final at-large spot over Notre Dame last December, and the Irish then skipped a bowl game.

What it means for Saturday

The ranking also hides a trend. Miami has outscored opponents 381-142 this season, about 47.6 to 17.8 per game. The last three games have been tighter than that average suggests, though. The Hurricanes gave up 35 to Florida State in a 43-35 win that needed two overtimes, beat Pittsburgh 52-23 and then held on 38-35 at North Carolina last week. That is 93 points allowed in three games, after just 49 in the first five combined. Miami also hasn't played a ranked opponent yet, and its schedule rates as the 49th toughest in the FBS, against 55th for Notre Dame.

The board treats the No. 1 team as the underdog. Across the 12 venues tracked on this site's game page, Notre Dame is favored by 5.5. Novig prices the Irish at -108 at that number, and the best price anywhere on Notre Dame -5.5 is -105 at theScore Bet. Fanatics is the only outlier, with Miami getting 6 points at -110. On the moneyline, Novig has Notre Dame at -199 and Miami at +194. The total is 57.5. Novig lists both sides at -104, and the over reaches even money at theScore Bet. Spread holds at the sportsbooks run from 3.7% to 7.0%, so the gap between venues is mostly in how much they charge rather than in where they set the number.

Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on NBC and Peacock. Notre Dame needs a win to stay in the playoff picture. Miami can lose and still get in, but only by winning the ACC.