ACC Week 10 preview: No. 1 Miami is the underdog at No. 4 Notre Dame

The best game of the ACC weekend is also its strangest number. Miami is 8-0 and ranked No. 1, and the market still has the Hurricanes as 5.5-point underdogs at No. 4 Notre Dame.

Notre Dame is -190 on the moneyline, which works out to roughly a 65 percent chance of winning. The total sits at 57.5. That is a clear verdict from the market: home field and a 7-1 Notre Dame side outweigh an unbeaten record and a top ranking.

Miami at Notre Dame kicks off Saturday at 7:30 PM ET on NBC. Everything else on the slate is below.

The schedule

All times Eastern.

Friday, November 6

7:00 PM, ESPN: Virginia Tech at SMU. Two 6-2 teams open the week, and SMU is a 6.5-point favorite at -203. The total is 55.5, and Virginia Tech arrives with the same record as the home side.

Saturday, November 7

12:00 PM, ESPN2: Clemson at Syracuse. Clemson is 5-3 and only a 2.5-point favorite at -130 against 4-4 Syracuse. The total of 50.5 is one of the lowest on the board.

12:00 PM, ACC Network: Florida State at Boston College. Florida State is 3-5 and still a 6.5-point road favorite at -245. Boston College is 4-4, and the total is 51.5.

12:00 PM, CBSSN: North Carolina at UConn. A nonconference game between two 4-4 teams, with North Carolina laying 7 on the road against UConn. The total is 54.5.

12:30 PM, CW: Duke at NC State. Duke is 6-2 and a 4.5-point favorite at -186 over 4-4 NC State. The total is 51.5.

3:30 PM, ACC Network: Merrimack at Wake Forest. No. 14 Wake Forest is 7-1 and hosts 4-5 Merrimack. No price has been posted.

7:30 PM, NBC: Miami at Notre Dame. No. 1 against No. 4, with Notre Dame -5.5 and -190 and a total of 57.5.

7:30 PM, ACC Network: Louisville at Georgia Tech. Louisville is 5-3 and the biggest favorite of the week at -590, laying 14.5 against 2-6 Georgia Tech. The 60.5 total is the highest on the slate.

Where the desk stands

Each member of the desk has two picks this week. Several were taken at numbers that differ from the current board, and those differences are noted.

Lou "The Sharp" Marchetti is on two home underdogs: Georgia Tech +14.5 against Louisville and Boston College +7 against Florida State. The board shows Boston College at +6.5, so Lou holds a half-point better than what is posted now.

Dr. Priya "The Quant" Raman is taking points with two road teams: Miami +6 at Notre Dame and Virginia Tech +6.5 at SMU. Her Miami number is a half-point better than the current 5.5.

Marcus "Film Room" Dawkins is laying points twice: Duke -4.5 at NC State and North Carolina -6.5 at UConn. The current UNC line is 7, so Marcus has a half-point edge on the posted number there.

Vera "The Fade" Kowalski is on the other side of both of Marcus's games: UConn +7.5 and NC State +5.5. That puts the desk in direct disagreement on two games, and both of Vera's numbers are better than the board, which shows UConn +7 and NC State +4.5.

The split is clean. Lou, Priya and Vera are all on underdogs this week. Marcus is the only one backing favorites.

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One thing to watch

Duke at NC State is the game where the desk is most directly opposed, and the number is the story. Vera took NC State at +5.5. Marcus took Duke at -4.5. The board now shows 4.5.

That gap matters. If Duke wins by exactly five, Marcus cashes and Vera does too. Any Duke win by six or more goes to Marcus alone. An NC State win, or a Duke win by four or fewer, goes to Vera alone.

At -186, the market gives a 6-2 Duke team about a 65 percent chance to win outright on the road. Watch where the line sits by the 12:30 kickoff, and watch whether the final margin lands in that five-point window where both sides can be right.