Miami projected No. 1 in first CFP rankings after narrow escape at North Carolina

Miami's three-point escape in Chapel Hill on Halloween night did not cost the Hurricanes their place at the top of the sport. The College Football Playoff selection committee releases its first rankings Tuesday, and Heather Dinich's ESPN projection puts Miami at No. 1. Dinich expects that to be the committee's easiest decision.

The case is straightforward. Miami is 8-0 with four ACC road wins and two Heisman candidates in quarterback Darian Mensah and receiver Malachi Toney, and it rates near the top of ESPN's Strength of Record metric. The knock is the schedule, which ESPN had ranked 60th going into Saturday. Dinich suggests some committee members could still prefer one-loss Georgia, which she projects at No. 2. Brett McMurphy of On3 kept the same top two on his AP ballot, Miami first and Georgia second, and noted that the Hurricanes, UCLA and Utah are the only unbeaten teams left heading into November.

The game itself was closer than anyone in Coral Gables would like. According to the National Football Post, Miami scored twice in the last eight minutes to beat North Carolina 38-35. Mensah threw for three touchdowns, Mark Fletcher Jr. scored three times and Toney caught two touchdown passes. A Marquise Lightfoot strip-sack set up the decisive score. The Tar Heels fell to 4-4 after back-to-back losses by a combined four points, and they visit UConn on Saturday.

ESPN's bracket would give Miami the top seed as ACC champion. Dinich also lays out a path for a second ACC team: Wake Forest, the likeliest opponent in the conference title game, would earn an automatic bid by beating Miami there, and the Hurricanes could still make the field on their résumé.

What it means for Notre Dame

Miami's toughest remaining game is next: Saturday at Notre Dame on NBC, its second straight road trip. ESPN projects the Irish at No. 4. Dinich says where Notre Dame lands Tuesday will show how much room it has to absorb a loss to Miami. She also notes that Miami would still have a path as ACC champion if it loses in South Bend.

The season lines show a Miami defense that has slipped. Through its first five games, Miami allowed 49 points in total. In the last three, against Florida State, Pittsburgh and North Carolina, it gave up 93. The two teams also share an opponent. Notre Dame beat North Carolina 37-26 in Chapel Hill, a wider margin than Miami managed on the same field.

The market leans toward the home team. On this site's board, which tracks seven venues, Notre Dame is favored at -156 on the moneyline at Novig, and the best price anywhere is -155 at Polymarket. Miami is +144 at Novig. The Irish are favored by 3.5 points, but the price on that number varies widely: -141 at Novig against -108 at BetMGM, where a winning $100 returns $92.59 instead of $70.92. BetMGM has the total at 55.5. Sportsbook hold on the moneyline runs from 4.1% to 6.7%.

A win in South Bend would likely leave Miami as the only serious contender for the No. 1 seed. A loss would put the Hurricanes back on the conference-title path ESPN describes.