Clemson named a top Week 9 road upset threat as it heads to Florida State

Clemson's 20-16 home loss to Virginia Tech dropped the Tigers to 4-3, and they are now underdogs going into Tallahassee. Even so, The Big Lead put them among the week's leading road upset candidates. Its Week 9 upset watch gave the Saturday night game at Florida State a 6.5 rating and picked Clemson to cover a six-point number, while still taking the Seminoles to win 24-20.

The case for Clemson is its defense. The Big Lead rates it seventh nationally in adjusted EPA per play. Florida State's defense ranks 106th by that measure and has allowed 27.9 points per game. The case against is just as clear. Clemson averages 21.4 points, 16th of 17 in the ACC, and its 17 plays of 20 yards or more are the fewest in the league. Dabo Swinney has admitted the big plays haven't been there.

Swinney isn't taking anything from Florida State's 3-4 record. Talking to reporters early in the week, as Heavy reported, he said the Seminoles were "probably four plays from being, you know, seven and up." He praised their size up front and the range of looks their defense shows, and he said his offense has to finish drives with touchdowns instead of field goals. Florida State had a bye last week. It led at some point in all four of its losses, and it lost running back Ousmane Kromah for the season against Miami. Former Texas back Quintrevion Wisner has taken over his role.

What it means for Saturday at Florida State

Clemson has scored 150 points this season and allowed 149, and the losses explain how. The Tigers lost 51-10 at LSU and 41-13 to Miami, but they also held Georgia Southern to 7, shut out Charleston Southern and gave up 10 at Cal. That 24-10 win at Cal is their only road victory. Seven points scored in the Charleston Southern game might have been enough against Virginia Tech, which shows how thin the offensive margin has been.

History leans toward Clemson. The Tigers beat Florida State 24-10 last November and have won four of the last five meetings, according to Sports Reference, although Florida State still leads the series 21-17. Kickoff is 7 p.m. ET on ACC Network.

Florida State is favored across this site's board, which covers 12 venues. On Novig the Seminoles are -203 on the moneyline and Clemson is +194. Novig has Florida State as a 6.5-point favorite at +102. That is the widest spread on the board. BetRivers has the Seminoles at -5 for -122, which makes them about a field goal and a half to two scores better than Clemson depending on the venue. The Big Lead's six-point number sits between those two. Sportsbook hold on the spread runs from 3.4% to 6.7%.

Novig's total is 50.5, with the over at -100 and the under at -104. Hard Rock Bet has a point lower at 49.5, with the over at -110. A total around 50 sits above what both teams have shown this season, with Clemson's offense struggling to score and Florida State's defense still giving up points. The Big Lead took the under, and the moneyline puts Florida State as roughly a two-to-one favorite.