Clemson insider says Virginia Tech has more ways to win Saturday, but the market leans Tigers

Virginia Tech goes to Death Valley on Saturday night with an unusual endorsement: the man who covers Clemson every day thinks the Hokies should win. In a preview swap with Virginia Tech Hokies On SI, Clemson On SI managing editor Griffin Barfield said the matchup tilts toward the visitors. He called it a likely elimination game for the ACC title race and said he sees "more avenues in this game for Virginia Tech to win than for Clemson."

Barfield's case rests on one mismatch. In his view, Clemson's identity has come from its secondary and special teams. Cornerback Ashton Hampton has stepped into a starting role after a year behind Avieon Terrell, Penn State transfer Elliott Washington has steadied the back end, and kicker Nolan Hauser has been one of the better specialists in the country. The offense has not kept up. Barfield said freshman quarterback Tait Reynolds is going through his progressions better under coordinator Chad Morris, but he described the execution, from Reynolds and his receivers alike, as unfinished. If Virginia Tech's defensive front gets an early lead and forces Clemson to throw, he doubts the Tigers can keep up.

The numbers back him up. Per ESPN, Reynolds has thrown for 943 yards with one touchdown and three interceptions. Ethan Grunkemeyer, who beat Clemson in last season's Pinstripe Bowl while at Penn State, has 1,984 yards, 15 touchdowns and two interceptions for the Hokies. Que'Sean Brown leads Virginia Tech with 616 receiving yards, and the Hokies' Aycen Stevens has eight sacks.

What it means for Saturday

The two teams arrive in very different form. Clemson is 4-2 and 2-1 in the ACC. Its two losses were lopsided, 51-10 at LSU and 41-13 against Miami, and it rebounded last week with a 37-0 shutout of Charleston Southern. The Tigers average about 22 points a game and allow about the same. Virginia Tech is 5-2 and 2-2 in league play, and a win would make it bowl-eligible. The Hokies beat Georgia Tech 34-24 last week after back-to-back close losses to Pittsburgh (35-33) and California (25-20). Even without the 73-3 win over VMI, they have scored about 31 points per game.

The market disagrees with Barfield. ESPN lists Virginia Tech as a 1.5-point favorite at the open, but this site's board for the game now shows Clemson favored. On Novig, one of 11 venues tracked, the Tigers are -133 on the moneyline and Virginia Tech is +127. Clemson is favored by 2.5 points on Novig at -113, and the Hokies are +2.5 at +111. The best number anywhere on the Virginia Tech side is BetMGM's +3 at -115, a half point more than Novig offers but at a steeper price. Novig's total is 48.5, and FanDuel's 49.5 at -115 is the best under available. Sportsbook hold runs from 2.9% to 6.4% on the moneyline and up to 6.7% on the spread and total, so the gap between venues is noticeable.

The outcome likely depends on the question Barfield raised: can Clemson's defense and kicking game cover for its passing offense one more time? Kickoff is 7 p.m. ET on ESPN.