Stanford needs two wins in three, starting at Virginia Tech, to end its bowl drought

Stanford comes out of its bye week at 4-5. To reach six wins and its first bowl game since the 2018 season, it needs two victories in a closing stretch that starts on the road. The Cardinal visit Virginia Tech on November 14, go to Cal the following Saturday and finish the regular season at home against SMU.

Roundtable Sports laid out what has to change. Stanford needs to put together four full quarters, stop high-scoring offenses and get its running game going. Dylan Grausz noted that a 5-7 team can still land a bowl spot if there are not enough six-win teams, but six wins would remove any doubt. The Louisville loss before the bye showed how quickly things can go wrong. Stanford trailed by only seven at halftime, then gave up 28 points after the break and lost 52-24.

The season splits cleanly along one line. Stanford has allowed fewer than 30 points in all four of its wins and at least 35 in all five of its losses. Roundtable pointed out that the Cardinal are 0-5 when they give up 30 or more. The offense follows the same pattern. Stanford averages 34 points in its wins and just over nine in its losses. In those five defeats it has been outscored by 200 points, and three of them were by 39 or more. On the season it has scored 183 points and allowed 336.

The running game has decided a lot of those outcomes. Micah Ford has 751 yards and eight touchdowns on 156 carries. He ran for 179 yards and four scores against Elon and 150 yards against NC State in consecutive wins. Louisville held him to 72 yards at 3.9 per carry, and Miami held him to 2.5 per carry in the 45-6 loss. In every loss except the one at Duke, he has averaged under four yards a carry.

What it means for Virginia Tech

The trip to Blacksburg plays against both of Stanford's trends. The Cardinal are 0-4 away from home this season, losing at Duke 35-7, at Wake Forest 57-3, at Notre Dame 58-7 and at Louisville 52-24. They have allowed more than 50 points in each of the last three road games. All four wins came at Stanford Stadium, where the only loss was to Miami.

The matchup up front is also a tough one. Roundtable reported that Virginia Tech ranks fourth in the ACC in run defense at 93.4 yards allowed per game. Of Stanford's remaining opponents, the Hokies are the hardest to run on. Cal ranks 15th in the league at 184.6 yards allowed per game, and SMU ranks eighth. Roundtable also listed Virginia Tech and SMU as the two dangerous offenses left on the schedule.

That leaves Stanford with a narrow path. Cal is the more favorable road game, and SMU comes to Stanford, where the Cardinal have won four of five. If Stanford wins in Blacksburg, it can afford a slip in one of the last two games. If it loses there, it has to win at Cal, which would be its first road win of the year, and then beat SMU at home.

The Cardinal's recent results show both sides. They beat Elon and NC State in back-to-back home games, then lost the second half at Louisville badly. Holding Virginia Tech under 30 points and getting Ford past four yards a carry would give Stanford a real chance at its third win in four games. If Virginia Tech scores the way Stanford's last three road opponents did, the bowl hopes will depend on the final two weeks. Full season coverage is on the Stanford team page.