SP+ projects Virginia Tech to beat Georgia Tech 33-22 in Week 7

Georgia Tech is coming off its first ACC win of the season, but the numbers still favor Virginia Tech this week. ESPN analyst Bill Connelly's SP+ projects the Hokies to beat the Yellow Jackets 33-22 on Saturday, according to Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets On SI.

The model gives Virginia Tech a 75% chance to win. ESPN's Football Power Index is a little more bearish on Georgia Tech and gives the Yellow Jackets a 26.3% chance to win on the road. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets On SI noted that the Jackets are the underdog with the sportsbooks and with most power ratings heading into the trip.

Connelly describes SP+ as a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. It is built to predict outcomes from the most sustainable parts of team performance, so it is not a résumé ranking. An 11-point projected margin means the system sees a real gap between the two teams, even with Georgia Tech's recent result factored in.

That result was a 28-25 upset of Duke at Bobby Dodd Stadium on Oct. 10. It was the Yellow Jackets' first conference win and ended what their head coach called a hard two-week stretch around the bye week. After the game, he said the team had to learn how to stop losing games before it could start winning them, and he credited the group for playing together. Beating Duke put Georgia Tech at 2-3. A win in Blacksburg would bring the Jackets back to .500 and give them a second ACC victory.

Virginia Tech is 4-2 but enters on a two-game losing streak. That is the opening Georgia Tech hopes to use. The Hokies need a home win to stop the slide and keep pace in the conference race.

The market lines up with the computers. Virginia Tech is favored at -335 on Novig, one of the venues pricing the game, and the best sportsbook price on the Hokies is -375 at BetMGM. The spread is Virginia Tech -9.5 with a total of 55.5. Both are close to the SP+ projection, which has the Hokies by 11 and a combined 55 points. Full pricing is on the game page.

The Yellow Jackets have to show that the Duke win was a turning point and not a one-off. On the road against a team that has lost two straight and wants to get back on track, the projections expect Virginia Tech to hold them off. A Georgia Tech win would change the outlook for its season heading into a Week 8 game against Boston College.

Georgia Tech at Virginia Tech kicks off at 3:30 p.m. EDT on Saturday, Oct. 17, on ACC Network.