Miami's Darian Mensah moves closer to Heisman lead as Ohio State loses its quarterback

Darian Mensah has not caught Jeremiah Smith in the Heisman race yet, but the man in front of him just lost his quarterback. In its latest Heisman momentum meter, USA TODAY Sports again ranks the Ohio State receiver first and Miami's quarterback second. The bigger news is in Columbus: Buckeyes starter Julian Sayin could miss the rest of the season, and true freshman Luke Fahey will make his first career start against Southern California on Oct. 31.

That puts Smith's numbers in the hands of an untested passer at the same moment Mensah is producing the best stretch of quarterback play in the country. Against Pittsburgh on Saturday, the Duke transfer went 31-for-37 for 387 yards and four touchdowns with no interceptions in a 52-23 win, Sports Illustrated reported. That kept the top-ranked Hurricanes unbeaten at 7-0 overall and 5-0 in the ACC.

USA TODAY puts his season at 81.4% completions, 2,151 yards, 22 touchdown passes (second nationally) and a national-best 89.7 QBR. The one thing the outlet says is missing is a signature win, even after a 41-13 rout at Clemson and a 43-35 win over Florida State. Austin Curtright wrote that Mensah is "a Heisman moment away from taking over the race from Smith."

Miami has a second player on the list. Receiver Malachi Toney moved from seventh to third after catching 27 passes for 348 yards across the Florida State and Pittsburgh wins, with five total touchdowns in those two games. He leads the nation with 66 receptions and is third with both 952 receiving yards and 11 touchdown catches. Having two candidates from one offense can split the vote, but it also gives Mensah's numbers a clear explanation that is hard to dismiss.

What it means for North Carolina

Miami visits North Carolina on Saturday, Oct. 31 (ABC). That night Ohio State plays USC with Fahey at quarterback, so voters will see both front-runners on the same weekend. The Hurricanes have scored 343 points in seven games, an average of 49, and allowed 107, about 15 a game. Only one opponent, Florida State, has finished within two scores. The Seminoles and Pittsburgh have scored the most against Miami this season, so the defense has given up more points lately even as the offense has kept rolling.

The board for this game has Miami as a heavy favorite. Novig prices the Hurricanes at -614 on the moneyline and North Carolina at +525. The best Tar Heels price at any of the 10 venues is FanDuel's +540. On the spread, Novig has Miami at -14.5 (-106) and North Carolina at +14.5 (+104), while Hard Rock Bet offers the Tar Heels a full point more at +15.5 (-110). The total is 52.5 on Novig, with other books ranging from 51.5 to 53. Sportsbook hold on the side markets runs from 3.5% to 6.7%.

For Mensah's Heisman case, the total stands out. Six of Miami's seven games have finished above 52.5 combined points. Another blowout would add to his numbers, but a road win against a two-touchdown underdog will not give him the signature moment USA TODAY says he still needs. If Fahey struggles against USC the same night, though, Mensah may not need one to take the lead.