Miami favored by a record margin over Florida State after Seminoles' collapse at Louisville

No. 3 Miami will host Florida State at Hard Rock Stadium this week as the biggest favorite in the rivalry in at least 45 years. The line has moved toward the Hurricanes since it opened, and it may keep moving.

The Palm Beach Post reported that Miami opened as a 19.5-point favorite after Florida State's loss Friday night. The number has since climbed as high as 23 points, and Vegas Insider lists the consensus at 22.5. Before this week, the biggest spread in the series over that stretch was 21 points. That has happened three times. Two years ago, a 7-0 Miami team was a 21-point favorite over a 1-6 Florida State team and won 36-14 at Hard Rock Stadium. Florida State was favored by 21 in 2012 and again in 2013, winning 33-20 and then 41-14.

The Seminoles' latest result is the main reason for the jump. Florida State went up 14-0 at Louisville, then gave up 35 straight points and lost 44-20. That dropped the Seminoles to 3-3. Louisville ran for 397 yards, according to the Post. That is the most Florida State has allowed under coach Mike Norvell and the second-most in program history. Three plays accounted for 209 of those yards. Isaac Brown scored on runs of 97 and 68 yards, and the 97-yarder set a Louisville record. Braxton Jennings added a 44-yard touchdown run. Run defense had been a strength for Florida State earlier this season, and the unit had mostly avoided giving up long plays.

Norvell didn't defend what he saw. The Post reported that he hit the table during his postgame press conference and said the defensive performance "sucked." He pointed out that his team had allowed about 20 rushing yards the week before. He also said the short week was no excuse for how badly the defense executed.

Miami's offense is a bad matchup for that defense. The Post rates the Hurricanes' attack as the most productive in the country. Florida State's defense ranks 121st nationally, and only four Power Four teams rank lower. Quarterback Darian Mensah has thrown for 1,438 yards and 15 touchdowns with no interceptions. Wide receiver Malachi Toney has 39 catches for 604 yards and six touchdowns. The Post lists both among the leading Heisman Trophy contenders. Miami also had last weekend off, while Florida State is coming off a short week and a loss on the road.

The game could also affect Norvell's future. According to the Post, the Florida State program expects Norvell to be fired before the season ends, and a lopsided loss in Miami Gardens could make that happen sooner.

Miami is ranked third and looking to stay in the national title picture, and a convincing win over its in-state rival would help its case. Florida State needs a much better defensive game to stay close. The Seminoles have to cut down on long runs and slow down Mensah and Toney, or this could end up as the most lopsided game in the rivalry in decades.