The Atlantic Line
FPI gives Virginia Tech a 73.7% chance against Georgia Tech, projects a 7-5 finish
ESPN's FPI gives Virginia Tech a 73.7% chance to beat Georgia Tech and end its two-game slide, and it projects a 7-5 regular season for the Hokies.
Virginia Tech has lost two straight, but ESPN's Football Power Index still likes the Hokies on Saturday. The model gives Virginia Tech a 73.7% chance to beat Georgia Tech at Lane Stadium, according to a game-by-game breakdown from Virginia Tech Hokies On SI. The same breakdown projects the Hokies to finish the regular season 7-5, with a 4-5 ACC record.
That 7-5 total depends a lot on Saturday. FPI has Virginia Tech as an underdog at Clemson (43.4%) and at SMU (39.3%), and the Hokies are given almost no chance at Miami (5.1%). That leaves the games against Georgia Tech, Stanford (93.5%) and Virginia (57.6%) as the likeliest wins. If the Hokies lose to the Yellow Jackets, they would have to win at least one of their road games as an underdog to stay on that pace.
Georgia Tech comes to Blacksburg after a 28-25 win over Duke, which ended a three-game losing streak. Trelain Maddox ran for three touchdowns in that game, including the go-ahead score with under a minute left. The Yellow Jackets are still short-handed. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets On SI reported that running back Justice Haynes is doubtful and Malachi Hosley is out again, which would make Maddox the lead back. Left tackle Ethan Mackenny, cornerback Daiquan White and defensive end Jordan Walker are listed as out. Linebacker Kyle Efford is also out after announcing his medical retirement this week.
What it means for Saturday
The two teams' records hide how close their recent games have been. Virginia Tech (4-2) won its first four, including a 21-14 win at Boston College, before losing to Pittsburgh by two and at California by five. Through six games the Hokies have outscored opponents 226-124, but 73 of those points came against VMI. Georgia Tech (2-3) has scored 136 and allowed 129. Two of its losses were close, 14-13 to Colorado and 34-27 at Stanford, and the other was a 45-24 loss to Tennessee. The Yellow Jackets' only true road game so far was the loss in Palo Alto.
The market is more confident than FPI. Georgia Tech opened as a touchdown underdog, and Virginia Tech is now favored by 9.5 on Novig at -115, with Georgia Tech +9.5 at +106. FanDuel has the best number on the Yellow Jackets' side, +10.5 at -114, a full point wider. On the moneyline, Virginia Tech is favored at -335 on Novig and Georgia Tech is +326. Once the margin is removed, that price works out to about a 76% chance for the Hokies, slightly higher than FPI's 73.7%.
The total is 55.5 on Novig, with the over at -106 and the under at even money. BetRivers has the highest total, 57, with the under at -122. Across the 10 venues on this site's board, the spread ranges from 9.5 to 10.5 and the total from 55.5 to 57. Sportsbook hold runs from 4.0% to 6.7% depending on the market.
Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. on ACC Network. For Virginia Tech, a win would keep the FPI projection on track before the trip to Clemson. For Georgia Tech, it would be a second straight ACC win.