Novig pricesDuke one win from bowl eligibility as hot Boston College comes to Durham
Duke (5-2) can clinch bowl eligibility Saturday against a Boston College team that ran for 399 yards in its last game.
Duke can lock up bowl eligibility at noon Saturday at Wallace Wade Stadium, and the team standing in the way is playing its best football of the season. Boston College arrives in Durham at 4-3, with wins in two straight games. In the most recent one, the Eagles ran for 399 yards and five touchdowns in a 49-27 win at Georgia Tech. That is the same stadium where Duke lost 28-25 on October 10.
Georgia Tech is the only opponent the two teams have shared, as Duke Basketball Report's preview on SB Nation points out. Manny Diaz has taken notice of the Eagles' improvement. At his Monday press conference he said Boston College's quarterback "might be the most dynamic player we've played against so far this year." That is Mason McKenzie, who leads the team with 614 rushing yards and has thrown for 1,363 yards, with eight touchdowns and seven interceptions. Lead back Evan Dickens is out for the season, but sophomore Bo MacCormack III ran for 155 yards and three scores in Atlanta.
Duke's injury report is longer. Safety Andrew Pellicciotta, defensive tackle David Anderson and Kimari Robinson are out, and four players are listed as questionable, including cornerback Kyon Loud and safety Che Ojarikre. Center and captain Matt Craycraft has missed the past two games but is not on the report. Sports Illustrated's Duke site expects the game to turn on the running game. Boston College gives up 182.1 passing yards per game, second-fewest in the ACC, but allows 151.1 rushing yards per game. That points to a heavy workload for Nate Sheppard. The Eagles went 2-10 last season under Bill O'Brien, so their turnaround is part of the story too.
What it means for Saturday
Duke is 5-2 and 2-2 in the ACC, the same conference record as Boston College, according to Boston College Athletics. The Blue Devils ended a two-game skid by winning 19-16 at Virginia. That followed close losses to Georgia Tech and North Carolina, so all three of Duke's last games have come down to the final possession. Duke has scored 20 or fewer points in two of those three games. Boston College opened 2-3 but has since scored 27 against Pittsburgh and 49 at Georgia Tech. Both teams' last loss came against a ranked or bowl-level opponent, so neither has much margin left in the league race.
The board for this game has Duke favored across 11 venues. Novig lists Duke at -245 on the moneyline and Boston College at +233. FanDuel has the best Boston College price at +240. On the spread, Novig has Duke favored by 7.5 at +111. theScore Bet has the shortest line at Duke -6.5, priced at -120. FanDuel's +7.5 at -114 is the best price on Boston College's side. The total is 48.5 at Novig and 47.5 at Hard Rock Bet. Sportsbook hold runs from 3.4% to 5.9% on the moneyline and up to 6.7% on the spread and total, so prices for this game vary noticeably by venue.
The spread is about a touchdown, but recent games point to a closer finish. Duke's last three games were each decided by four points or fewer. Boston College enters with the stronger ground game and a healthier roster.