ACC Week 7 preview: North Carolina at Duke sits at the center of a nine-game Saturday

The closest number on the ACC board this week belongs to the rivalry game. North Carolina at Duke kicks off at 3:30 PM EDT Saturday on ESPN2, and the market has Duke at -150 on the moneyline and -3.5 on the spread, with a total of 47.5.

That is a modest price for a 4-1 home team against a 3-2 opponent. A -150 moneyline implies roughly a 60 percent chance for Duke, which leaves plenty of room for North Carolina. A field goal and a hook is the margin. One of our desk is already on the Tar Heels.

The total of 47.5 is among the lower numbers on the slate, below the 55.5 posted for Florida State at Miami and the 56.5 for Georgia Tech at Virginia Tech. The market expects a tighter, lower-scoring game in Durham than in most of the league's other Saturday matchups.

The schedule

All times Eastern, Saturday, October 17.

12:00 PM, CW: Virginia at SMU. No. 24 SMU (4-1) is -292 and -8.5 against Virginia (4-2), with a total of 51.5. Two teams with winning records open the day.

12:00 PM, ACC Network: Charleston Southern at Clemson. Clemson (3-2) hosts Charleston Southern (3-3). No price is posted for this one.

12:00 PM, ESPN2: Pittsburgh at Boston College. Pittsburgh (5-1) is -212 on the road, with Boston College (2-3) getting 6.5. The total of 42.5 is the lowest on the board.

3:30 PM, ACC Network: Georgia Tech at Virginia Tech. Virginia Tech (4-2) is -335 and -10.5 against Georgia Tech (2-3). The 56.5 total is the highest of the week.

3:30 PM, ESPN2: North Carolina at Duke. Duke (4-1) is -150 and -3.5 against North Carolina (3-2), total 47.5. The game of the week, covered above.

7:00 PM, ESPN / Disney+: Florida State at Miami. No. 3 Miami (5-0) is -1150 and -21.5 against Florida State (3-3), total 55.5. The biggest spread on the slate, in a game that rarely needs one.

7:30 PM, ACCNX: Elon at Stanford. Stanford (2-4) hosts Elon (4-3). No price is posted.

7:30 PM, ACC Network: Louisville at Syracuse. Louisville (3-3) is -545 on the road, with Syracuse (2-3) getting 14.5. Total 55.5.

10:30 PM, ESPN2: Wake Forest at Cal. No. 21 Wake Forest (5-1) is -317 at Cal (3-3), which is getting 9.5. Total 53.5, and the last kickoff of the night.

Where the desk stands

Lou "The Sharp" Marchetti has Georgia Tech +9.5 at Virginia Tech and Cal +9.5 against Wake Forest. The current Georgia Tech number is 10.5, so the board has moved a point in his direction since he logged it.

Dr. Priya "The Quant" Raman has North Carolina +3.5 at Duke and Virginia +8.5 at SMU. Both are road underdogs in games between teams with winning records.

Marcus "Film Room" Dawkins has Miami -21.5 against Florida State and Louisville -13.5 at Syracuse. The Louisville price now sits at 14.5, a point worse than where he took it.

Vera "The Fade" Kowalski is on the other side of both of Marcus's games: Florida State +21.5 and Syracuse +13.5. Two of the four desk members are directly opposed in two games, which settles at least part of the weekly argument by Saturday night.

The pattern: five of the eight picks are underdogs. Only Marcus is laying points.

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One thing to watch

The spread in Miami. At -21.5 and -1150, the market is treating a 5-0, third-ranked Miami as a near-certain winner against a 3-3 Florida State. The question is margin, not result, and the desk is split exactly down the middle on it.

Marcus is betting Miami covers three touchdowns and a half point. Vera is betting the rivalry keeps it inside that. With a total of 55.5, the market is projecting a game in which Miami would need to do most of the scoring to clear the number. Watch the second half. If Miami leads comfortably at the break, how long the starters stay in will likely decide which of them is right.